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MBS CLOSE: Uneventful End To Uneventful Day

Posted To: MBS Commentary
Though MBS were not quite as thinly traded as treasuries (lowest volume since the first trading day of 2010), the picture wasn't much better. At least that which is at risk on low volume days--volatility due to the trading that actually happens comprising a larger portion of the total--was not present. Quite the opposite in fact, as the the same trend that began to emerge early this afternoon remained intact through the close. In MBS, the 101-07 to 101-10 range covered almost everything since 1030 AM. That's a quiet, boring day. I move a lower trendline down to 3.57 on the 10yr yield to show that we're going out today at an even lower yield level than Friday. So don't let the entire day of slightly worse readings fool you... The net effect for both markets was FLAT. And in the...(read more)
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Housing Needs Job Creation. What Sort of Jobs Though?

Posted To: Voice of Housing
Mr. O’Reilly (December 01, 2009) claims that the “new” root cause of the housing crisis is the (lack of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” So the solution to the crisis must be (the creation of) “jobs, jobs, jobs.” I agree. But the next question is this: What sort of jobs? Consider a proposal for two, complementary jobs programs. The first is called the “Litter Scattering Brigades.” Workers are paid to strew trash along the nation’s highways. The second jobs program is called the “Litter Gathering Brigades.” Workers are paid to collect the trash strewn on the nation’s highways. The workers of the Scattering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home. The workers of the Gathering Brigade have jobs, and thus can afford a home...(read more)
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Centralized Lock Desks Serve as a Gate Keeper. Source of Revenue

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report
This was the half time scene in Miami last night at Super Bowl XLIV... I am sure many watchers were thinking: Why The Who? Maybe some of us in our 60s and 70s need to be “put out to pasture” or start “whittling wood” on the front porch. However, as a boomer, I was inspired to see these guys still rocking and rolling. I enjoyed the music and hope they keep playing. Peter Townsend will go down as one of most brilliant musical writers of all time. That’s enough about The Who and dating myself. Lets’ talk about secondary market and locking loans. One of the areas we review during our FOCIS-plus Studies is whether a company has a centralized lock process. Centralizing the lock function means all lock requests and confirmations are managed by a “gate keeper”...(read more)
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MBS AFTERNOON: Narrow And Stable Heading Into The Close

Posted To: MBS Commentary
The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of prices with almost perfectly flat directional movement. In other words, the simple existence of a "narrow range" doesn't always mean prices aren't moving. We can see narrow ranges while still moving DIRECTIONALLY. For instance, even on a 16 tick rally, if the subsequent highs and lows are only a tick or two higher than their previous marks, the line on the chart would be fairly smooth yet still be very much higher at the end of...(read more)
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MBS LUNCH: Well Off Friday's Highs, But Holding Ground

Posted To: MBS Commentary
As AQ pointed out this morning, today's slightly downward trend in MBS price began in the final hours of Friday's trading. Both MBS and Treasuries put in their best marks of the day just before 2pm, and have moved steadily downward ever since. You may notice, however, that both markets appear to be losing that negative steam near current levels. For Treasuries, that looks to be around 3.60 and for MBS, around 101-08. At the moment, the Fannie 4.5 is a tick higher than that at 101-09, but is still 5 ticks lower from Friday's closing prices. All that being said, the more important trends to watch pertain to the generally supportive range for MBS that emerged even before Friday's boomy rally. AQ pointed this out as well, and it remains pertinent at the moment. You can see on Thursday...(read more)
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